The Rise of Metro Phoenix in 2023. Will growth buckle as its future remains uncertain?
Phoenix is one of the fastest growing cities in the U.S. With nearly 1.65 million people, it is also the largest capital city and 5th largest by population just after Houston, Texas. More and more people are deciding to move to Phoenix each year, which has caused an eye-opening look into both housing and infrastructure challenges that the city is currently faced with. Phoenix’s growth was hyper-fueled by the after effects of the Pandemic, where remote workers left both West and East coasts for green pastures in the U.S Sunbelt region. Phoenix Metro is estimated to now have 5.01 million people which is a gain of 300k more people since 2019. wwwOther cities with noticeable YOY growth, are Dallas, TX, Raleigh, NC, Atlanta, GA, Charlotte, NC, Houston, TX, Orlando, Jacksonville and Tampa, FL.
With more people, equals a greater want for entertainment, amenities and nightlife in their respective backyards, and Phoenix is no different in that regard where it needs more of everything, and with the growth in people its attractions are simply trying to keep up! On the horizon, Phoenix is looking forward to a large resort style waterpark, with another amusement park looking to take shape in the adjacent lot next to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ. Two major malls are currently undergoing expansion and renovations to compete with rising salaries and higher grossing shopping developments in the area. Both local fan fare favorites, Metro Center Mall and Paradise Valley Mall, will both be anchored by higher end departments, retailers and grocers along with better options for transit and accessibly to a higher population of young people and those with disposable incomes. As the Valley attracts a high number of transplants, local residents are seemingly left to play the waiting game while infrastructure plays catch up all throughout the city. While things are still in planning mode throughout Phoenix, BIPOC can take advantage now of low overhead to open their own store fronts in many of the abandon storefronts across North and South Phoenix. Theres ample space and opportunity for new black and brown faces to set up shop in the city and establish a core audience and community before prices return to their height from Sept 2020 to June 2022. With rental prices dropping in Phoenix by 4% since Jan 2022, Phoenix is one of the only US cities to see rental prices drop or moderate in a time where inflation is steaming with no indications of slowing down anytime soon.
Where are people moving to in Phoenix metro area? A variety of places data shows. A strong push to urbanize the core and central corridor of Phoenix has been heavily infused by a surge in population after 2020 and through 2023 where Phoenix faced some of the highest rising costs of major cities in the U.S. Many moved into Chandler, Gilbert, Goodyear, Buckeye, while others gravitated towards Arcadia, Biltmore, Melrose and Downtown Phoenix. in the 2022 General Elections, Maricopa county flipped to a blue majority for both governor, secretary of state and attorney general, in the state’s first such victory since the late 1970s, when Bruce Babbit preceded Wesley Bolin for governorship after his sudden death in 1978. During this time Rose Mofford was the acting secretary of state, which gave Arizona a democratic majority for all major cabinets during the late 70s and into the early 1980s. Many who are unfamiliar with the history of the statehood beginning back in 1912, are quick to write Phoenix off as as another desert town, with brown landscaping and a step-child for post 90s suburban sprawl.
Phoenix is trying to change its tame and misunderstood image of the past, into a brighter more in tune one with its newfound residents. Learning from its previous mistakes of spreading outward and across freeways and farm pastures, Phoenix now looks to increase vibrancy in town, by strengthening vertical growth of housing units to meet demand levels for the amount of new faces that relocate each day. Phoenix has faced a severe housing shortage since Summer 2019 and this has only worsened due to present higher interests rates and dwindling home supply during a resurgence of remote work during 2021. Phoenix also deals with increasingly hotter summers, more severe droughts and unpredictable ebbs and flows of weather patterns which makes cultivating a community in Arizona more challenging in the long run. People face difficulty with understanding how life can go on, without natural resources of survival, something that most don’t readily understand the desert has abundance of. The Sonoran Desert to which Phoenix is located, is the world’s wettest desert by precipitation and this gives its natural environment a unique appeal that many grew fond of after just a few days of visiting. Phoenix is a magnet for those on a spiritual journey to understand themselves better, without judgement and free from past familiarities that those who come to love it are no longer burden by past traumas from their past.
All this to lead into, where exactly is Phoenix destined to go? With explosive growth continuing through the 2020s and issues such as water shortages and climate change have future residents pondering if another city maybe a safer option, long term. While those fears can become a reality, it is more likely that Phoenix innovates and pioneers itself into a city, “that can”, and will…by any means necessary. This includes water cuts to certain unincorporated communities that face water restrictions, which in return limits how far Phoenix is able to expand. With over 67k brand new residents in 2022, Maricopa County is also shooting from all cylinders, with a tremendous push towards tech related jobs in Arizona in 2021 and 2022. According to Metro Economy Report, the Phoenix area economy grew by 22 million dollars to 358 billion GDP up from 336 billion in 2021 and landing at the #14 spot on the top US metros GDP list. Also in 2022, Arizona elected its first democratic governor in more than 13 years after a much heated general election race that resulted in a more positive reflection of Arizona’s residents when the dust finally settled. Now in 2023, Phoenix has hosted the Super Bowl LVII, the WM Phoenix Open, MLB Spring Training and several big named conventions and conferences have made Phoenix their choice of destination in 2023, including the PDC summit and the NABJ Region IV Conference that took place in March of this year.
With many more events to partake in, along with a new cohort of people arriving ever week into this vastly under-appreciated city, will also come more criticism from cynical tourists, growing pains that many metros previously endured more than 30 years ago, such as Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Miami, FL. Phoenix has a long way to go in order to catch up to its peer cities, while many years of potential urbanization was neglected for a push to suburbanize the Valley instead of focusing on establishing a centralized core. As the amount of young people that only know their home as Phoenix begins to increase, there will be a strong push to grow as a collective city, instead of sections seeing prosperity while other neighborhoods remain untouched and stagnant. That remains the challenge of this innovative city, the one that rises from the ashes after being charred to the ground. It’s a place, that those who journey there can only wonder why they didn’t make the leap sooner, while for others it’s an anomaly and utterly confusing place to call home, and remains unfathomable to why human live resides there. Maybe Phoenix deserves a chance to prove itself beyond 2023 and establish a crucial cultural pivot into a modern desert metropolis of the future. Whatever Phoenix wishes to be, i’ll continue to admire its determination from afar, as it continues to move into its own sphere of importance.
